Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 60.675058 67.864078 76.101370 86.366416 99.003581 114.315345 134.701753
2025-02-02 53.194054 62.959874 75.269022 92.446829 116.753066 151.656242 209.538694
2025-02-09 47.656667 58.365964 72.690324 94.243861 127.960052 183.403994 295.939529
2025-02-16 43.111318 54.050767 69.304528 93.557914 134.571805 210.180027 396.543203
2025-02-23 39.656841 50.643790 66.481310 92.837066 140.519226 238.284590 534.449050
2025-03-02 36.472878 47.200609 63.044293 90.327466 142.357146 258.892451 688.117790
2025-03-09 33.994425 44.508264 60.373105 88.550900 144.998974 282.981050 917.292690
2025-03-16 31.277040 41.215980 56.394553 83.831680 140.396835 286.239638 1067.496002
2025-03-23 30.574807 40.895187 57.102589 87.646736 155.201928 355.321858 2104.936621
2025-03-30 29.080765 39.220186 55.394910 86.615299 158.613443 391.716272 3504.575099
2025-04-06 27.643117 37.528208 53.496778 84.925274 159.975868 422.741531 6231.952502
2025-04-13 25.974624 35.367758 50.627897 80.929453 154.466165 421.794387 8532.280104
2025-04-20 25.820027 35.687529 52.187704 86.491463 177.256224 587.798844 NaN
2025-04-27 25.667955 36.005266 53.797022 92.579690 205.359608 880.672958 NaN
2025-05-04 24.960494 35.335467 53.518322 94.380752 221.063166 1170.169485 NaN
2025-05-11 24.023853 34.210749 52.274618 93.693233 227.828660 1423.786529 NaN
2025-05-18 23.164475 33.165399 51.091720 92.970741 234.382124 1754.909402 NaN
2025-05-25 22.182435 31.853441 49.291549 90.455475 232.786317 1953.836205 NaN
2025-06-01 21.350900 30.763270 47.850951 88.674952 233.817792 2273.860161 NaN
2025-06-08 20.271439 29.192205 45.369833 83.945446 220.479977 2091.635517 NaN
2025-06-15 20.122365 29.252346 46.128651 87.768792 247.722483 4015.164347 NaN
2025-06-22 19.514716 28.464577 45.121610 86.735093 251.604935 5318.494243 NaN
2025-06-29 18.884530 27.609493 43.925214 85.041394 251.555713 6632.357376 NaN